This article is published in Polish. Na tle zachodniej analityki poświęconej Białorusi raport wyróżnia się realistycznym ujęciem problemu relacji z Mińskiem oraz krytycznym podejściem do rozwiązań stosowanych obecnie zarówno na poziomie Unii Europejskiej, jak i Polski. Tekst zawiera jedynie skrócone wnioski z zamkniętego panelu „Odwilż USA – Białoruś. Czy Polska i Europa powinny skorygować politykę względem Mińska?”. Mimo to materiał jest wystarczający, by poddać rozumowanie

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs On 17 September 2026, the prospect of a military conflict between NATO and Russia appeared significantly closer — at least judging by the avalanche of reactions on Western social media to the high-profile statements of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron. The reaction was largely prophetic and panicky in tone. It amplified their remarks with unverified c

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs In Search of an Approach to a „Difficult Neighbour” Poland entered 2026 as a pivotal state upon which the security of both NATO and the EU, as well as the survival of an independent Ukraine, now largely depend. While this prominent role on NATO’s northeastern flank significantly elevates Warsaw's strategic standing, it simultaneously renders Poland a primary target for Russian hybrid warf

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs On 2 August 2026, in an appearance on Belarusian television, Colonel Alexander Ilyukevich, Commander of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, spoke about the implementation of plans to create a new SOF formation — the 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. According to him, a number of units and sub-units have already been formed, officers ha

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs 1. Introduction Since 1960, four divisions from the Soviet Union’s Strategic Missile Forces have been stationed in Belarus. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus ranked eighth in the world in terms of nuclear weapons stockpiles. On 27 July 1990, a declaration on the state sovereignty of the Byelorussian SSR was adopted, stating that the country aimed to make its territory a

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs 1. Context of the document's creation, its versions, objectives and target group, authors, novelty and relevance The document was prepared by a group of experts on behalf of the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (hereinafter referred to as OST) and, according to official information on the OST website, “contains important and relevant information about the security of Belarus — energy, i

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs 1. New Challenges, Old Solutions The 2020s have seen the rapid collapse of the global security architecture, posing acute threats to the EU. These include Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the weakening of the U.S.-EU partnership and conflicts in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, all of which disrupt global stability. Traditionally, the main source of threats to the EU has been its e

Note: The title deliberately avoids using the terms “attack” or “Russian” to prevent prejudging conclusions. Several aspects related to...

1. Introduction The report titled “Systematic Preparation of the Lukashenko Regime for Potential Entry into the War on Russia’s Side and...

1. Introduction On February 27, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko gave an interview [i] to a Dubai-based blogger with American...

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs 1. Trump’s Elite Revolution: The New Right-Wing Power Donald Trump’s ascent to power was primarily enabled by profound changes within the Republican Party. During his first presidential term, this transformation was only beginning to gain momentum. As a result, the emerging alt-right political elites became mired in fierce opposition from ideological adversaries within the party and from

by Alexander Piroznikov, PhD Foreign Policy Analyst & Expert in Eastern European Affairs 1. Background and Context The U.S.-China trade war has intensified in 2025, with the U.S. imposing significant tariff hikes under President Donald Trump's administration. As of April 2025, the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports reached 145%, combining a 125% tariff with a prior 20% levy tied to fentanyl-related concerns. These tariffs, announced in early April, aim to address p

1. Introduction to the Problem Trump’s inauguration set in motion a series of political events that surprised not only the West but also...

1. The crux of the matter As of March 2025, the issue of possible annexation of Belarus by Russia, including the use of military force,...

1. Introduction On 26 January 2025, the main voting took place at the presidential election of the Republic of Belarus. The incumbent...

1. Special political conditions for the presidential elections On January 26, 2025, the main voting at the presidential election of the...

Four years after Lukashenko's botched 2020 presidential election, a new presidential campaign is beginning in Belarus. It takes place in...

Analytical review of the main events in the field of national security of the Republic of Belarus (December 2023 - January 2024). The...

Some Outputs From The EESF Workshop On The Regional Security Situation In Central Asia And The Caucasus Region. Conclusions on the...

Strategic vacuum against the backdrop of common threats. “Ukrainian key” to solving the problems of the Belarusian opposition. At the...