ESCALATION BAROMETER: REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

The graph below shows the general trend of escalation/de-escalation due to the foreign policy activities of Alexander Lukashenko and the country's military and political leadership. The purpose of the graph is to visualize information about their activities aimed at stimulating escalation or de-escalation in the region. Therefore, events related exclusively to the internal security of the country are not included in this analysis.

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Each month is assigned a numerical value based on the number and type of escalation-impacting events that occurred during that period.

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For verification purposes, a legend is provided below the graph that lists the events considered for each month. Because the escalation potential of individual events varies, each event is assigned a value between 1 and 3:

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1: An official statement by Lukashenko or a high-ranking official.
2: An escalation event or action that is primarily defensive in nature.
3: An escalation event or action that is potentially offensive in nature.

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The scale of de-escalation actions/events is as follows:

-1: A de-escalatory statement by A. Lukashenko or a senior official.
-2: Lukashenko or a senior official meeting or participating in an official event on the subject of de-escalation.
-3: An action by the Belarusian authorities or an event related to Belarus that is aimed at de-escalation.